Budget and Overrides and the sky is falling, but not really…
Here is where I’m at on budgets and overrides and things of this nature.
First – I am against any cuts to the early learning center and elementary school first and foremost because I believe that these two buildings have the most potential for growth. Kids and families connect with each other and their teachers in these buildings. They do youth in town and connect with the kids they’ll grow up together with. These schools also are where kids form the foundations for learning. Here they learn phonics, site words and pronunciation and how to read; in addition to math skills, science and socialization skills with their peers. These are the building blocks to success later on in school! Numerous studies have also shown that lower class sizes in K-3 create a foundation for learning that lasts long into middle and high school and life. As I mentioned at one of the School Committee meetings – we all remember who our kindergarten teacher was…
Second we need to grapple with the demographic decline in the Northeast and ultimately the Sutton Public Schools. Indeed in DESE Enrollment by Grade report for school years 2023 – 2026 all of our schools, except for the Middle School show decline as shown in the chart below:
| School | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 4-yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Learning | 326 | 339 | 324 | 307 | -19 (-5.8%) |
| Elementary | 304 | 313 | 287 | 293 | -11 (-3.6%) |
| Middle School | 296 | 295 | 313 | 318 | +22 (+7.4%) |
| High School | 369 | 363 | 367 | 336 | -33 (-8.9%) |
| District Total | 1,295 | 1,310 | 1,291 | 1,254 | -41 (-3.2%) |
Running the data through a linear regression model out to 2028-2029 shows more projected decline, with just moderate growth in the Middle School
| School | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Learning | ~306 | ~299 | ~292 | ↓ Declining |
| Elementary | ~285 | ~279 | ~273 | ↓ Declining |
| Middle School | ~327 | ~335 | ~343 | ↑ Growing |
| High School | ~335 | ~326 | ~316 | ↓ Declining |
| District Total | ~1,253 | ~1,239 | ~1,224 | ↓ Declining |
These are facts, and it’s unfortunate – but these are the facts that we, as a community are currently faced with. The largest declines show in the Middle School and High School – the single most alarming signal in the dataset is the Grade 8 to Grade 9 survival rate of only ~78.5% — meaning roughly 1 in 5 students leaving Middle School does NOT enroll at Sutton High School. This shows up in the numbers last year: 94 eighth graders in 2024-25, but only 68 enrolled as freshmen in 2025-26 — a loss of 26 students in a single transition.
FTE Levels in the high school have not responded appropriately, and in spite of offering over 30 electives kids still leave for schools like Blackstone Valley Tech or private schools. Class sizes and schedules have not been adjusted and we do not have enforced minimum class size requirements – thus creating situations where one teacher will have some sections of under 10 kids. Practically until this is adjusted we actually can’t understand what our true FTE counts are or what they need to be. Further since 85% of the budget is salaries (which compound year over year via contractual obligations and step/lane changes) simply throwing more money at the problem creates a snowball effect longer term.
Common sense dictates that we cannot continue operating in the same way as before. So what should we do?
In my opinion we ought to focus on the early experience, creating smaller class sizes and giving kids the 1:1 attention they need to succeed. It’s my hope that by building back these experiences that we’ll retain kids and slowly stabilize the high school enrollment. We also ought to look at strategically bringing some career technical programs to help retain kids as well – these programs come with grants as seed money, but will require focused operational oversight to makes sure we are not exceeding budget. Further, the high school should focus on what our core responsibilities are – education children to be college or work ready. This means a sober look at our electives vs requirements and focusing more on core ELA/MATH/SCI curriculum. Our test scores have been in decline and with a total enrollment of under 400 students there’s no reason why every child in the high school shouldn’t be a high achiever and still get the electives that they want!
But what about an override?
We can’t solve a structural deficit composed primarily from unbalanced FTE counts by simply giving the district more money. 85% of our budget is composed of salaries which compound year over year. Without right sizing our staffing, and figuring out long term what we want our district to be, there is simply NO justification for an operational override for the schools. I’m not saying there won’t ever be a need for more money but it is not justifiable right now based on the facts and data. The pro override voices are loud but small. They advocate for more money and make vague platitudes about trusting the educators.
These platitudes do little to lower the burden of high gas prices and an inflationary economy where most peoples wages simply have not kept up. Those who are pro override would also quickly dismiss our most vulnerable namely the elderly, retired, and the 200 families who use our food pantry – these are the people who would be affected most when their property taxes are increased. We need to protect these people and shouldn’t be so hasty to simply raise their taxes!
